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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to adopt a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer should Vladimir Putin carried on hindering truce negotiations, Trump ultimately imposed considerable sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action substantially affected the Russian leader's ability to finance his war effort in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, that was created by US and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU participation, he has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Invasion

This proposal would essentially benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality compromise that same autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his real-estate experience, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, as if giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's territory will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's invasion is not simply about dominating a destroyed region of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's apparent goal to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Surrenders

While keeping in position the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would require the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding Russia with area that its forces have been unable to capture in more than a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukraine's military defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a essential impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital should he later decide to renew the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would make additional fighting easier for Russia, the plan would require the nation to diminish the size of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, the plan sets no similar constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's attempts to characterize the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Any radical belief system and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal places no obligation that the Russian leader risk his regime by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the plan makes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a return of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. While the initiative threatens a "decisive unified defense action" should Russia restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars vary from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not only block the nation alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from stationing troops on the nation's land, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his diminished military, rearming, and attacking again.

International Reaction

Another side agreement apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any future "serious, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a military response. However unlike a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, including Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not