Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.